Between 1800 and 2000 Dutch population increased from two million souls to sixteen million inhabitants. By the end of the 20th century, however, this spectacular growth slowed down to such a degree that some observers predicted a decline of population in the near future. This paper focuses mainly on the period before the great turn. We will present differences in population growth in time and between regions from 1800 on, but we also deal with the consequences of two centuries of population growth: urbanization and changes in age distribution, in sex ratio, in the composition of occupational population, and in the changing numerical relationships between denominations. In our conclusion we use the historical perspective to assess whether or not the Dutch population will decrease and if so, what consequences can be expected. |
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Redactioneel |
Van de redactieThemanummer – Krimp: zegen of vloek? |
Artikel |
Inleiding: De wonderbaarlijke terugkeer van Thomas MalthusOver bevolkingspolitiek in een krimpende wereld |
Auteurs | Harry van Dalen en Ewald Engelen |
Auteursinformatie |
Artikel |
Van leeg naar vol, en weer terug?De bevolking van Nederland tussen 1800 en 2000 |
Auteurs | Theo Engelen |
SamenvattingAuteursinformatie |
Artikel |
De angst voor bevolkingskrimp, vergrijzing en bevolkingspolitiek |
Auteurs | Harry van Dalen |
SamenvattingAuteursinformatie |
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Discussie |
Bevolkingskrimp en ons pensioenvermogen |
Auteurs | Nout Wellink |
Auteursinformatie |
Discussie |
Kritische afstand |
Auteurs | Wouter van Dieren |
Auteursinformatie |
Artikel |
Krimpende arbeidsmarkt: nieuw perspectief, oude problemen |
Auteurs | Paul de Beer |
SamenvattingAuteursinformatie |
The contraction of the labour force evokes both promising and gloomy prospects. Promising, because unemployment is expected to be a thing of the past, gloomy, because a shortage of labour could endanger our future prosperity. This article shows that both prospects are wrongfully based on a static perspective of the labour market, which neglects the underlying dynamics. Since the demand and the supply of labour adjust to one another, the future labour market will not be completely different from the present one. Moreover, the ageing of the labour force has nearly reached its apogee and the age composition of the labour force will not change much in the next 25 years. Thus, the problems of a contracting labour market will be remarkably similar to the problems of the expanding labour market of the past decades. |
Artikel |
In voor- en tegenspoed?Over krimp en de verzorgingsstaat |
Auteurs | Romke van der Veen |
SamenvattingAuteursinformatie |
This article is concerned with the consequences of economic and demographic decline for the welfare state. The issue of decline itself is not investigated. Decline is taken for granted and the consequences of decline are examined. In this article the sociological 'logic' of social policy is investigated and subsequently applied to the issue of decline. The policy-mechanisms that are discussed are: selective versus universal social policy; the extent and character of redistribution; and individual versus collective responsibility. The question that is raised in the final section is what demographic decline in particular might imply for a universal welfare state: more selectivity in social policy? less redistribution between young and old? more individual responsibility? By making use of the policy-mechanisms discussed before, the consequences of these strategies are discussed. |
Artikel |
Collectieve uitgaven aan verpleging en verzorging in tijden van vergrijzing |
Auteurs | Evelien Eggink, Evert Pommer en Isolde Woittiez |
SamenvattingAuteursinformatie |
Public expensens on elderly care are paid through the exceptional Medical Expenses Act (Algemene Wet Bijzondere Ziektekosten, AWBZ in Dutch) or the Social Support Act (Wet Maatschappelijke ondersteuning, WMO in Dutch). These expenses have risen 2.8% yearly in the past decennium. This is mainly due to rising cost prices. In the same period the growth in the volume of care was much lower. Especially the volume of home care increased, while the volume of nursing-home care decreased. This is caused by the improving health of the Dutch population. Moreover Dutch elderly can live independently longer, which means that the participation component in the volume nursing-home care decreases. This trend in decreasing participation will continue the coming years, but due to the fast ageing of the Dutch population the care volume will increase somewhat faster than in the past. According to our calculations this leads to an increase of expenses of 3.6% yearly. The population decline will put severe pressure on the number of employees. This will possibly induce a reduction in the available supply of care and an increase in wages in the care sector. As a result the consequences of the population shrinkage on public expenses are unknown. |
Artikel |
Krimp, vergrijzing en de vraag naar woningen |
Auteurs | Piet Eichholtz en Thies Lindenthal |
SamenvattingAuteursinformatie |
How strong is the influence of ageing and the population decline on the amount and quality of the demand for housing? On basis of a broad sample including English households dating from 2001, it is shown that human capital, as measured by education, is a substantive factor in the demand for housing. On the other hand, factors such as chronic illness, which decrease human capital, have a negative effect on the housing consumption. Assuming that every generation is better educated and healthier than the previous generations, this will lead to a growing total need for housing in an ageing society, even when the amount of households will not further increase. |
Artikel |
De ruimtelijke gevolgen van demografische krimp |
Auteurs | Frank van Dam, Femke Verwest en Carola de Groot |
SamenvattingAuteursinformatie |
In the near future a growing number of Dutch regions and municipalities will experience a decline in population and household numbers. However, compared with other countries, the impending population shrinkage in the Netherlands will be modest, if not insignificant. The spatial consequences of this demographic decline will be limited. Other factors, such as economic growth, behavioural change and spatial planning policy, will have a more important influence on spatial development. The fixation on population numbers in both the public debate about demographic decline and in policy-making is therefore misplaced and futile. Insofar as demographic trends already have an influence on spatial developments, it is primarily through changes in household numbers and population composition, for example in relation to housing needs. This does not mean that demographic decline will not raise issues pertinent to spatial development policy. In municipalities and regions, falling household numbers may push up housing vacancy rates and exacerbate segregation, leading to a reduction in the quality of the living environment. These negative consequences will be concentrated in specific districts, neighbourhoods and villages. Demographic decline is not only a threat; it also presents opportunities. In regions currently suffering from serious housing shortages, a shrinking number of households will relieve pressure on the housing market. In addition, contraction of local and regional populations will open up opportunities for reducing densities and 'greening' these neighbourhoods. When anticipating or responding to demographic decline, local and regional governments mainly adopt a strategy of improving the quality of the housing stock and stimulating employment. In both cases, there is a danger of competition between local authorities (or regions and provinces), which may lead to uneconomic spatial investments and irreversible spatial developments. |
Boekbespreking |
Bevolkingskrimp: bedreiging of zegen voor de economie? |
Auteurs | Frank den Butter |
Auteursinformatie |
Column |
De kabinetsreactie op het WRR-rapport 'Identificatie met Nederland': een chaotisch koekje van eigen deeg |
Auteurs | Jan Willem Duyvendak |
Auteursinformatie |
Nieuws |
Mededeling |