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Aflevering 4, 2008 Alle samenvattingen uitklappen
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Van de redactie

Themanummer – Krimp: zegen of vloek?

Artikel

Inleiding: De wonderbaarlijke terugkeer van Thomas Malthus

Over bevolkingspolitiek in een krimpende wereld

Auteurs Harry van Dalen en Ewald Engelen
Auteursinformatie

Harry van Dalen
Harry van Dalen is werkzaam als senior onderzoeker bij het Nederlands Interdisciplinair Demografisch Instituut (NIDI) te Den Haag en het CentER van de Universiteit van Tilburg.

Ewald Engelen
Ewald Engelen is universitair hoofddocent aan de Faculteit der Maatschappij- en Gedragswetenschappen van de Universiteit van Amsterdam. Correspondentiegegevens: Dr. E.R. Engelen Universiteit van Amsterdam Faculteit der Maatschappij- en Gedragswetenschappen Nieuwe Prinsengracht 130 1018 VZ Amsterdam e.r.engelen@uva.nl
Artikel

Van leeg naar vol, en weer terug?

De bevolking van Nederland tussen 1800 en 2000

Auteurs Theo Engelen
SamenvattingAuteursinformatie

    Between 1800 and 2000 Dutch population increased from two million souls to sixteen million inhabitants. By the end of the 20th century, however, this spectacular growth slowed down to such a degree that some observers predicted a decline of population in the near future. This paper focuses mainly on the period before the great turn. We will present differences in population growth in time and between regions from 1800 on, but we also deal with the consequences of two centuries of population growth: urbanization and changes in age distribution, in sex ratio, in the composition of occupational population, and in the changing numerical relationships between denominations. In our conclusion we use the historical perspective to assess whether or not the Dutch population will decrease and if so, what consequences can be expected.


Theo Engelen
Theo Engelen is hoogleraar historische demografie aan de Radboud Universiteit Nijmegen. Correspondentiegegevens: Prof. dr. Th.L.M. Engelen Radboud Universiteit Nijmegen Opleiding Geschiedenis Postbus 9103 6500 HD Nijmegen

Harry van Dalen
Harry van Dalen is werkzaam als senior onderzoeker bij het Nederlands Interdisciplinair Demografisch Instituut (NIDI) te Den Haag en het CentER van de Universiteit van Tilburg. Correspondentiegegevens: Dr. H.P. van Dalen Nederlands Interdisciplinair Demografisch Instituut Postbus 11650 2502 AR Den Haag dalen@nidi.nl

Nout Wellink
Nout Wellink studeerde Nederlands recht aan de universiteit van Leiden en promoveerde in 1975 aan de Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam tot doctor in de economie. Sinds 1 juli 1997 is hij president van de Nederlandsche Bank. Correspondentiegegevens: Dr. A.H.E.M. Wellink De Nederlandsche Bank Westeinde 1 1017 ZN Amsterdam info@dnb.nl
Discussie

Kritische afstand

Auteurs Wouter van Dieren
Auteursinformatie

Wouter van Dieren
Wouter van Dieren is directeur van IMSA Amsterdam, een denktank op het gebied van duurzaamheid en innovatie. Tevens is hij lid van de Club van Rome. Correspondentiegegevens: W. van Dieren IMSA Amsterdam Prins Hendriklaan 15 1075 AX Amsterdam info@imsa.nl

    The contraction of the labour force evokes both promising and gloomy prospects. Promising, because unemployment is expected to be a thing of the past, gloomy, because a shortage of labour could endanger our future prosperity. This article shows that both prospects are wrongfully based on a static perspective of the labour market, which neglects the underlying dynamics. Since the demand and the supply of labour adjust to one another, the future labour market will not be completely different from the present one. Moreover, the ageing of the labour force has nearly reached its apogee and the age composition of the labour force will not change much in the next 25 years. Thus, the problems of a contracting labour market will be remarkably similar to the problems of the expanding labour market of the past decades.


Paul de Beer
Paul de Beer is Henri Polak-hoogleraar voor arbeidsverhoudingen aan de Universiteit van Amsterdam. Tevens is hij verbonden aan De Burcht (Centrum voor Arbeidsverhoudingen) en het Amsterdams Instituut voor ArbeidsStudies (AIAS). Correspondentiegegevens: Prof. dr. P.T. de Beer Universiteit van Amsterdam Amsterdams Instituut voor ArbeidsStudies (AIAS) Plantage Muidergracht 12 1018 TV Amsterdam p.t.debeer@uva.nl
Artikel

In voor- en tegenspoed?

Over krimp en de verzorgingsstaat

Auteurs Romke van der Veen
SamenvattingAuteursinformatie

    This article is concerned with the consequences of economic and demographic decline for the welfare state. The issue of decline itself is not investigated. Decline is taken for granted and the consequences of decline are examined. In this article the sociological 'logic' of social policy is investigated and subsequently applied to the issue of decline. The policy-mechanisms that are discussed are: selective versus universal social policy; the extent and character of redistribution; and individual versus collective responsibility. The question that is raised in the final section is what demographic decline in particular might imply for a universal welfare state: more selectivity in social policy? less redistribution between young and old? more individual responsibility? By making use of the policy-mechanisms discussed before, the consequences of these strategies are discussed.


Romke van der Veen
Romke van der Veen is hoogleraar Sociologie van arbeid en organisatie aan de Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam. Correspondentiegegevens: Prof. dr. R.J. van der Veen Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam Faculteit der Sociale Wetenschappen Postbus 1738 3000 DR Rotterdam vanderveen@fsw.eur.nl

    Public expensens on elderly care are paid through the exceptional Medical Expenses Act (Algemene Wet Bijzondere Ziektekosten, AWBZ in Dutch) or the Social Support Act (Wet Maatschappelijke ondersteuning, WMO in Dutch). These expenses have risen 2.8% yearly in the past decennium. This is mainly due to rising cost prices. In the same period the growth in the volume of care was much lower. Especially the volume of home care increased, while the volume of nursing-home care decreased. This is caused by the improving health of the Dutch population. Moreover Dutch elderly can live independently longer, which means that the participation component in the volume nursing-home care decreases. This trend in decreasing participation will continue the coming years, but due to the fast ageing of the Dutch population the care volume will increase somewhat faster than in the past. According to our calculations this leads to an increase of expenses of 3.6% yearly. The population decline will put severe pressure on the number of employees. This will possibly induce a reduction in the available supply of care and an increase in wages in the care sector. As a result the consequences of the population shrinkage on public expenses are unknown.


Evelien Eggink
Evelien Eggink is werkzaam als senior onderzoeker bij het Sociaal en Cultureel Planbureau (SCP). Correspondentiegegevens: Dr. E. Eggink Sociaal en Cultureel Planbureau (SCP) Onderzoeksgroep Quartaire Sector Postbus 16164 2500 BD Den Haag e.eggink@scp.nl

Evert Pommer
Evert Pommer is werkzaam als hoofd onderzoeksgroep bij het Sociaal en Cultureel Planbureau (SCP).

Isolde Woittiez
Isolde Woittiez is werkzaam als senior onderzoeker bij het Sociaal en Cultureel Planbureau (SCP).
Artikel

Krimp, vergrijzing en de vraag naar woningen

Auteurs Piet Eichholtz en Thies Lindenthal
SamenvattingAuteursinformatie

    How strong is the influence of ageing and the population decline on the amount and quality of the demand for housing? On basis of a broad sample including English households dating from 2001, it is shown that human capital, as measured by education, is a substantive factor in the demand for housing. On the other hand, factors such as chronic illness, which decrease human capital, have a negative effect on the housing consumption. Assuming that every generation is better educated and healthier than the previous generations, this will lead to a growing total need for housing in an ageing society, even when the amount of households will not further increase.


Piet Eichholtz
Piet Eichholtz is Fortis hoogleraar vastgoed en financiering aan de Universiteit Maastricht. Correspondentiegegevens: Prof. dr. P.M.A. Eichholtz Universiteit Maastricht Faculteit der Economische Wetenschappen en Bedrijfskunde Department of Finance Postbus 616 6200 MD Maastricht p.eichholtz@finance.unimaas.nl

Thies Lindenthal
Thies Lindenthal is promotieonderzoeker aan de Universiteit Maastricht.
Artikel

De ruimtelijke gevolgen van demografische krimp

Auteurs Frank van Dam, Femke Verwest en Carola de Groot
SamenvattingAuteursinformatie

    In the near future a growing number of Dutch regions and municipalities will experience a decline in population and household numbers. However, compared with other countries, the impending population shrinkage in the Netherlands will be modest, if not insignificant. The spatial consequences of this demographic decline will be limited. Other factors, such as economic growth, behavioural change and spatial planning policy, will have a more important influence on spatial development. The fixation on population numbers in both the public debate about demographic decline and in policy-making is therefore misplaced and futile. Insofar as demographic trends already have an influence on spatial developments, it is primarily through changes in household numbers and population composition, for example in relation to housing needs. This does not mean that demographic decline will not raise issues pertinent to spatial development policy. In municipalities and regions, falling household numbers may push up housing vacancy rates and exacerbate segregation, leading to a reduction in the quality of the living environment. These negative consequences will be concentrated in specific districts, neighbourhoods and villages. Demographic decline is not only a threat; it also presents opportunities. In regions currently suffering from serious housing shortages, a shrinking number of households will relieve pressure on the housing market. In addition, contraction of local and regional populations will open up opportunities for reducing densities and 'greening' these neighbourhoods. When anticipating or responding to demographic decline, local and regional governments mainly adopt a strategy of improving the quality of the housing stock and stimulating employment. In both cases, there is a danger of competition between local authorities (or regions and provinces), which may lead to uneconomic spatial investments and irreversible spatial developments.


Frank van Dam
Frank van Dam is als onderzoeker verbonden aan het Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving (PBL). Correspondentiegegevens: Dr. F. van Dam Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving Oranjebuitensingel 6 / Postbus 30314 2511 VE Den Haag / 2500 GH Den Haag 070-3288798 frank.vandam@pbl.nl

Femke Verwest
Femke Verwest is als onderzoeker verbonden aan het Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving (PBL).

Carola de Groot
Carola de Groot is als onderzoeker verbonden aan het Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving (PBL).

Frank den Butter
Frank den Butter is hoogleraar algemene economie aan de Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam. Correspondentiegegevens: Prof. dr. F.A.G. den Butter Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam Faculteit der Economische Wetenschappen en Bedrijfskunde Afdeling Algemene Economie De Boelelaan 1105, kamer 2A38 1081 HV Amsterdam fbutter@feweb.vu.nl

Jan Willem Duyvendak
Jan Willem Duyvendak is hoogleraar algemene sociologie aan de Universiteit van Amsterdam. Correspondentiegegevens: Prof. dr. W.G.J. Duyvendak Universiteit van Amsterdam Amsterdam School for Social science Research (ASSR) Oudezijds Achterburgwal 185 1012 DK Amsterdam duyvendak@uva.nl
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