Zoekresultaat: 7 artikelen

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Jaar 2007 x
Article

Coalitiesteun in Antwerpen, Hasselt en Oostkamp

De invloed van politieke ontevredenheid, politiek wantrouwen en etnocentrisme vergeleken

Tijdschrift Res Publica, Aflevering 4 2007
Auteurs Marc Swyngedouw, Koen Abts en Jarl Kampen
SamenvattingAuteursinformatie

    In this paper we investigate the effects of political dissatisfaction, political distrust and ethnocentrism on support to the incumbent coalition in three different municipalities in Flanders. Theoretically, we define the concept of political trust, at which it is differentiated from political satisfaction and political alienation. At the same time, four dimensions of political distrust are disentangled: competence, integrity, responsiveness and justice. Empirically, four research questions may be distinguished. First, we investigate whether political satisfaction, political trust and ethnocentrism have an independent effect on support to the ruling majority. Second, we check whether there are differential effects of the dimensions of political trust on the dependent variable in the different municipalities.Third, we try to connect the micro-level data with macro-level, by linking the results with the characteristics of the local government and the party system. Fourth, we examine the influence of the presence of extreme right.


Marc Swyngedouw
Hoogleraar aan het Centrum voor Sociologisch Onderzoek (CeSO-K.U.Leuven).

Koen Abts
Wetenschappelijk medewerker aan het CeSO (K.U.Leuven).

Jarl Kampen
Postdoctoraal onderzoeker aan de Vakgroep Politieke Wetenschappen (V.U.Brussel).
Article

Belgian Politics in 2006

Tijdschrift Res Publica, Aflevering 2-3 2007
Auteurs Sam Depauw en Mark Deweerdt
Auteursinformatie

Sam Depauw
Postdoctoral Fellow of the Fund for Scientific Research – Flanders at the KU Leuven.

Mark Deweerdt
MA in Political Science.

Bart Haeck
Licentiaat in de Rechten Politiek redacteur bij De Tijd.

    In national elections the results tend to become more ‘nationalized’: a homogeneous party offer all over the territory, less variation in the results per constituency and more homogeneous electoral swings. This article investigates whether this nationalization can also be witnessed at local elections. It focuses on two indicators: the party offer and the voting behaviour. The party offer is the presence of the national parties on the local ballot paper, while the voting behaviour looks at patterns of homogeneity across the municipalities.
    The answer to the question of nationalization is mixed. The Flemish and Walloon local elections display the same long-term trend as the national elections, but they keep their own local character. The heterogeneity of the local party offer clearly demonstrates the local specificity of the local elections, and consequently the voting behaviour also differs from the voting behaviour at national elections. We also find that the local elections in Wallonia are less nationalized than in Flanders.
    Although the local character of the local elections remains important, the newer parties – Ecolo and Groen! – show until 2000 a clear trend towards nationalization. Especially the extreme right Vlaams Belang shows positive scores on all indicators of nationalization since its first local appearance in 1982.


Fanny Wille
Fanny Wille is verbonden als assistent/vorser aan de Vakgroep Politieke Wetenschappen en de Vakgroep Micro-economics of the Profit and Non-Profit Sectors aan de Vrije Universiteit Brussel. Zij doet onderzoek naar lokale coalitievorming.

Kris Deschouwer
Kris Deschouwer is gewoon hoogleraar aan de Vakgroep Politieke Wetenschappen van de Vrije Universiteit Brussel. Hij doet onderzoek naar politieke vertegenwoordiging in systemen met een complexe institutionele context.

    We analyse the presence of a cost of ruling and/or incumbency advantage in the municipal elections in Flanders of 1988, 1994 and 2000. The empirical work concentrates on vote share evolutions of the three main parties: CD&V, Sp.a and VLD. We find evidence that being in power leads to an incumbency advantage, especially for those parties who provide the mayor. The results indicate that this electoral advantage is not uniform among parties (the socialist party appears to benefit more) and, importantly, the incumbency advantage seems to dampen over successive elections. From the perspective of the local politicians, it is important to keep in mind that this incumbency advantage at the local level was insufficient to compensate for the general trend of the major parties to lose votes at all levels of government. Indeed, even in the 1988 elections – where a clear local incumbency (mayor) advantage could be identified for each of the three parties – it was the case that government parties on average lost votes.


Jan Vermeir
Jan Vermeir promoveerde in 2006 tot dr. in de economische wetenschappen aan de VUB met een proefschrift ‘Essays on Elections and Coalition Formation’. Hij is auteur van artikels in European Journal of Political Research, Electoral Studies, Applied Economics, ...

Bruno Heyndels
Bruno Heyndels is hoogleraar in de economie aan de VUB. Hij verricht onderzoek omtrent de interactie economie & politiek, economie & cultuur en economie & sport. Hij is auteur van talrijke publicaties in (internationale) tijdschriften.

    The number of preference votes for the candidates running in the October 2006 local elections in the thirteen main cities of Flanders is largely determined by the position on the list and the previous political mandate. A multivariate analysis shows that an executive function on the local level yields a comparable electoral bonus as a national mandate. The campaign expenditures also have a significant effect. There is a spending limit, but the candidates on average spend only 22% of what they are allowed to. Christian-democratic candidates generally spend the most, with the liberals ranked second. The gender, age and professional status of the candidates have at most a very marginal effect on their electoral score, controlling for the other relevant variables. Candidates with a foreign name obtain a somewhat better result on average, but this is particularly the case with candidates running for the socialist party.


Bart Maddens
Bart Maddens is hoofddocent aan het Centrum voor Politicologie van de K.U.Leuven. Hij doceert onder meer vergelijkende politiek en kiesstelsels. Zijn onderzoek betreft hoofdzakelijk verkiezingen en partijfinanciering.

Karolien Weekers
Karolien Weekers is wetenschappelijk medewerker aan het Centrum voor Politicologie van de K.U.Leuven. Ze werkt aan een doctoraatsonderzoek over partij- en campagnefinanciering en maakt sinds 2006 deel uit van het team dat de KANDI-gegevens inzamelt en analyseert.

Stefaan Fiers
Stefaan Fiers is docent aan het Centrum voor Politicologie van de K.U.Leuven en doceert politieke wetenschappen aan de Campus Kortrijk van de K.U.Leuven. Hij nam mee het initiatief tot de zogenaamde KANDI-onderzoeken, die voor elke verkiezing sinds 2003 de belangrijkste sociografische en electorale kenmerken van alle verkiezingskandidaten op Vlaamse lijsten verzamelt.

Ine Vanlangenakker
Ine Vanlangenakker is assistente aan de Faculteit Sociale wetenschappen van de K.U.Leuven en bereidt een doctoraat voor over het carrièreverloop van leden van regionale parlementen in comparatief perspectief. In 2006 maakte ze deel uit van het team dat de KANDI2006-gegevens inzamelde en analyseerde.

    In discussing the results of the Belgian local elections of 8 October 2006 the media devoted most attention to Antwerp. Not only because it is Flanders biggest city, but especially because of the remarkable result of mayor Patrick Janssens and his socialist party (Sp.a-Spirit). They won over 35% of the votes and became the biggest party of the city, a position that was taken by the extreme right party for more than ten years. In this article we tried to map and explain the so called ‘Janssens-effect’. By analysing the election results and the data of an (inter-university) Internet panel we managed to prove that Patrick Janssens had a large share in the victory of his party. A lot of citizens of Antwerp that normally would not vote for the socialist party supported Janssens. To explain this personal success we suggested four plausible motives: the perceived qualities of Janssens as a mayor; his presidential campaign; the attention of and performance in the media; and finally the statement against extreme right. Our panel data suggest that a combination of these motives can explain the Janssens-effect. The appreciation for Janssens as a very capable mayor was present among the electorate long before the campaign started. This appreciation became the basis for his electoral success. The fact that many voters decided to switch to Janssens in the months and weeks before the election is related to his campaign and the media-attention it generated. The media strengthened the image of Antwerp as a polarised city. Especially the voters that changed their vote intention during the campaign were convinced that supporting Janssens was the most explicit signal against the extreme right image of their city.


Peter Van Aelst
Peter Van Aelst is postdoctoraal assistent politieke wetenschappen en lid van de onderzoeksgroep ‘Media, Middenveld en Politiek’ (M2P) aan de Universiteit Antwerpen. Hij doctoreerde over de rol van de media tijdens de verkiezingscampagne van 2003 en publiceerde eerder in diverse tijdschriften over protestgedrag, nieuwe media, en agenda-setting.

Michiel Nuytemans
Michiel Nuytemans is onderzoeker aan het departement Politieke Wetenschappen en lid van de onderzoeksgroep ‘Media, Middenveld en Politiek’ (M2P) aan de Universiteit Antwerpen. Hij doet onderzoek naar agendasetting, verkiezingen en de relatie tussen media en politiek.
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