Public expensens on elderly care are paid through the exceptional Medical Expenses Act (Algemene Wet Bijzondere Ziektekosten, AWBZ in Dutch) or the Social Support Act (Wet Maatschappelijke ondersteuning, WMO in Dutch). These expenses have risen 2.8% yearly in the past decennium. This is mainly due to rising cost prices. In the same period the growth in the volume of care was much lower. Especially the volume of home care increased, while the volume of nursing-home care decreased. This is caused by the improving health of the Dutch population. Moreover Dutch elderly can live independently longer, which means that the participation component in the volume nursing-home care decreases. This trend in decreasing participation will continue the coming years, but due to the fast ageing of the Dutch population the care volume will increase somewhat faster than in the past. According to our calculations this leads to an increase of expenses of 3.6% yearly. The population decline will put severe pressure on the number of employees. This will possibly induce a reduction in the available supply of care and an increase in wages in the care sector. As a result the consequences of the population shrinkage on public expenses are unknown.