Zoekresultaat: 9 artikelen

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Jaar 2018 x
Artikel

Access_open In de schaduw, uit de schaduw

Oorsprong, aard en mogelijkheden van schaduwverkiezingen of exit polls

Tijdschrift Bestuurs­wetenschappen, Aflevering 4 2018
Auteurs Prof. dr. Jelke Bethlehem en Prof. dr. Joop van Holsteyn
SamenvattingAuteursinformatie

    There is a lot of polling in the Netherlands, especially in the run-up to elections. The assessment of future voting behavior in the run-up to elections is inherently difficult, because many voters do not know in advance whether they will vote, let alone for which party. There is therefore constant debate about the quality of these surveys. However, there are also polls that are not held prior to elections, but on election day instead. They are called exit polls or shadow elections. The sample consists of voters who actually visited the polling station and cast their vote. In this article the authors emphasize the nature and useful and interesting role of exit polls. Exit polls are an important tool for making an accurate prognosis of the results shortly after the closing of the ballot boxes. Secondly, an exit poll can provide further insight into electoral gains and losses, and thus counteract unfounded speculation. After all, the data collected form an empirical source for a first analysis of the outcome and electoral behavior. All in all, the exit poll is a relatively easy-to-organize and attractive ingredient for a results evening. Confusing pre-election polls with exit polls probably does not do justice to the higher quality of exit polls in terms of prognosis. The article explains where exit polls differ from pre-election polls and what the most important choices are when setting up such a poll; it also shows that a well-designed exit poll is accurate and has adds value to a results evening. The authors give practical examples in their argument and discuss the exit poll that was organized in Leiden at the council elections of 21 March 2018.


Prof. dr. Jelke Bethlehem
Prof. dr. J.G. Bethlehem is bijzonder hoogleraar in de survey-methodologie aan het Instituut voor Politieke Wetenschap van de Universiteit Leiden. Hij was tevens senior methodologisch adviseur bij het Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek in Den Haag.

Prof. dr. Joop van Holsteyn
Prof. dr. J.J.M. van Holsteyn is hoogleraar politiek gedrag en onderzoeksmethoden aan het Instituut voor Politieke Wetenschap van de Universiteit Leiden.

Dr. Rik Reussing
Dr. G.H. Reussing is onderwijscoördinator van de joint degree Public Governance across Borders aan de Universiteit Twente en redactiesecretaris van Bestuurswetenschappen.
Introduction

De macht van partijen in België sinds 1981 – particratie revisited

Tijdschrift Res Publica, Aflevering 4 2018
Auteurs Karel Van Nieuwenhuyse, Stefaan Fiers en Frederik Verleden
Auteursinformatie

Karel Van Nieuwenhuyse
Karel Van Nieuwenhuyse is professor verbonden aan de onderzoekseenheid Geschiedenis van de KU Leuven. Zijn historische expertise situeert zich op het domein van politiek en dagbladpers in België in de 20e eeuw.

Stefaan Fiers
Stefaan Fiers werkt als directeur Communicatie en Public Affairs in de privésector, en is deeltijds hoofddocent Politieke wetenschappen aan de KU.Leuven, Centrum voor Politicologie. Hij doceert er de vakken vergelijkende politiek en public affairs. Hij is ook voorzitter van Bepact, de Belgische vereniging van public affairs officials. Zijn wetenschappelijk onderzoek spitste zich eertijds toe op de carrières van parlementsleden en regeringsleden.

Frederik Verleden
Frederik Verleden is historicus en doctor in de Sociale Wetenschappen. Hij publiceerde een historische en politicologische analyse over het ontstaan van de particratie in België. Hij werkt bij de dienst Juridische Zaken en Parlementaire Documentatie van de Kamer van Volksvertegenwoordigers en is als gastdocent politieke geschiedenis verbonden aan de faculteit Sociale Wetenschappen van de KU Leuven.
Dossier

Access_open Bijsluiter bij: Buy-to-let gewikt en gewogen

Tijdschrift Beleid en Maatschappij, Aflevering 3 2018
Trefwoorden Buy-to-let, Dutch housing market, Private investors, Private rent, Netherlands
Auteurs Dr. Marcel Visser
SamenvattingAuteursinformatie

    Over the past three years buy-to-let purchases have become a substantial presence in the Dutch housing market. Private investors buy existing homes in order to rent out. Rental yields have become attractive to a large group of individuals due to low interest rates and high rents. Though buy-to-let helps to increase the stock of rental homes (a broadly recognized need in the Netherlands) there are concerns about negative effects for instance on affordability for regular house seekers. A new group of buyers enters the market and this poses new or potentially aggrevated risks for the Dutch housing market, in particular regarding overall house price stability.


Dr. Marcel Visser
Dr. Marcel Visser is financieel econometrist. www.linkedin.com/in/marcel-visser
Dossier

Access_open Reactie op Buy-to-let gewikt en gewogen

Tijdschrift Beleid en Maatschappij, Aflevering 3 2018
Trefwoorden Buy-to-let, House price bubbles, Private rental sector, Housing policy, International trends
Auteurs Dr. ir. Maartje Martens
SamenvattingAuteursinformatie

    The Socialist Party commissioned this academic study into the scale and impact of the recent rise of buy-to-let transactions in Dutch urban housing markets. The study focusses, however, on the rise of private rental housing. This definition of buy-to-let is challenged in this review, as is the impact of the recent rise of buy-to-let on the Dutch owner occupied housing market.


Dr. ir. Maartje Martens
Dr. ir. M. Martens is onafhankelijk woningmarktexpert Housing Analysis.

    In the last few years, platform work and the so-called ‘gig economy’ have been growing across countries. While policy makers are debating the gig economy, there is no single agreed definition of this new type of work and systematic academic reviews are missing. This literature review provides main findings of relevant papers on working in the gig economy. The article shows that the growth of the gig economy fits well into the increasing hybridisation of work, which raises some political questions.


Fabian Dekker
Fabian Dekker is als arbeidssocioloog verbonden aan Regioplan Beleidsonderzoek en lid van de redactie van Beleid en Maatschappij.
Artikel

Slanker maar topzwaar, meer vrouwen maar vergrijsd: het veranderende gezicht van de rijksoverheid 2002-2015

Tijdschrift Beleid en Maatschappij, Aflevering 1 2018
Trefwoorden Cutbacks, Government spending, Civil servants, Public service, Open data
Auteurs Dr. Dimiter Toshkov, Eduard Schmidt MSc en Prof. dr. Caspar van den Berg
SamenvattingAuteursinformatie

    This article analyses the transformations of the Dutch civil service over the last 15 years, during which numerous cutbacks and reorganizations took place. While existing research predominantly focused on changes in the total number of civil servants, we examine how the distribution of civil servants changed in terms of rank, gender and age. We theorize four methods for shrinking the government apparatus, and for each method, we identify the possible consequences for the composition of the central civil service in terms of hierarchical make-up and of age. Our results indicate that the total number of civil servants only slightly decreased, but the decrease affected differentially the various ranks of the civil service. While at the lower ranks the number of civil servants decreased strongly, at the upper ranks the number actually increased slightly. The number of women in the civil service increased, also in the higher echelons. Regarding the age distribution, we found considerable changes, with the modal age shifting upwards with up to ten years. Altogether, the civil service has become slightly smaller, more gender-balanced, and significantly more senior (both in terms of ranks and age). The results of this study show that it is important for researchers and practitioners to look beyond the trends in the total number of civil servants and explore the deeper changes within the civil service.


Dr. Dimiter Toshkov
Dr. Dimiter Toshkov is werkzaam bij het Instituut Bestuurskunde, Faculty of Governance and Global Affairs, Universiteit Leiden.

Eduard Schmidt MSc
Eduard Schmidt MSc is werkzaam bij het Instituut Bestuurskunde, Faculty of Governance and Global Affairs, Universiteit Leiden.

Prof. dr. Caspar van den Berg
Prof. dr. Caspar van den Berg is werkzaam bij de Campus Fryslan, Rijksuniversiteit Groningen.
Artikel

Access_open Verantwoordelijkheid, veiligheid en strafrecht

Over het bestraffen van feilbaarheid

Tijdschrift Bestuurskunde, Aflevering 1 2018
Trefwoorden accountability, blame, criminal law, professional error, safety
Auteurs Dr. mr. Willem-Jan Kortleven
Samenvatting

    This paper analyses various landmark criminal cases in the Netherlands that saw individual professionals being blamed for allegedly contributing to safety-critical events occurring in the past twenty years. These cases can be seen as symbolizing an increasingly risk-averse society whose expectations of human capacity for securing safety have reached unprecedented levels. In this view, punishing professionals who make dangerous mistakes serves to re-establish the illusion of being in control and to satisfy emotions. In practice, however, the prosecution of professional error appears to be somewhat out of touch with public sentiment, as responses to the cases discussed revealed little public support and a backlash among professionals. Moreover, safety science and practice claim that punishing individual error tends to undermine safety and overemphasizes the role of individual error compared to systemic failures. This begs the question of whether criminal liability should be imposed at the system level, as recently happened when local governments were sentenced following fatalities on dangerous road spots. Sentencing ‘system administrators’ may have advantages, but probably produces negative effects as well. Therefore, it would be ideal if administrators reduced the need for resorting to criminal law by proactively and generously taking responsibility for their organisation’s share in accidents.


Dr. mr. Willem-Jan Kortleven
Discussie

De vroege geschiedenis van de (lokale) bestuurswetenschappen

Jos van der Grinten als bondgenoot van Gerrit van Poelje

Tijdschrift Bestuurs­wetenschappen, Aflevering 1 2018
Auteurs Rik Reussing
SamenvattingAuteursinformatie

    Exactly a hundred years ago Jos van der Grinten wrote an article in De Beiaard (a catholic magazine) with which he established his name as early administrative scientist. In this respect he is an important ally of Gerrit van Poelje, who is generally recognized to be the founder of the (local) administrative sciences in the Netherlands. This essay discusses the most important themes in the work of Van der Grinten against the background of the early debate about the quality of local administration in the Netherlands. The essay also looks into his place in the history of (local) administrative sciences, not only nationally in relation to Gerrit van Poelje, but also internationally in relation to the American writer Frank Goodnow. In 1923 Van der Grinten (until his early death in 1932) was the first professor of State and Administrative Law at the new Catholic University of Nijmegen. As the city secretary of Nijmegen he played an important role at the arrival of this university to Nijmegen, but in this period he also contributed to the (local) administrative sciences. In this sense he is the forerunner of Public Administration, first at the Legal Department and later at the Social Department of the Radboud University in Nijmegen.


Rik Reussing
Dr. G.H. Reussing is onderwijscoördinator van de joint degree Public Governance across Borders aan de Universiteit Twente en redactiesecretaris van Bestuurswetenschappen.
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