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Artikel

Hoe word je wethouder? Een onderzoek naar de transparantie en het democratisch gehalte van de wethoudersvoordracht

Een onderzoek naar de transparantie en het democratisch gehalte van de wethoudersvoordracht

Tijdschrift Bestuurs­wetenschappen, Aflevering 2 2014
Auteurs Julien van Ostaaijen
SamenvattingAuteursinformatie

    This article addresses the question how aldermen are selected and nominated and how this process is related to a number of democratic values like popular influence and transparency. The central question is how one becomes an alderman in the Netherlands. To answer this central question a document analysis has been carried out and 137 interviews with aldermen have been held in 77 municipalities that were selected on geographical dispersion and number of inhabitants. The research shows that the process until the appointment of aldermen is little transparent and democratic for the outside world. In the large majority of the cases aldermen are asked an nominated from within a political party. The road to becoming an alderman is not closed, in principle everyone can become an alderman, but it is also not transparent and accessible for everyone. For this the selection and nomination is too much tied up to and decided in political party networks. However, gradually changes occur in this closed party bastion, because now parties more often are forced to look for suitable candidates outside the party.


Julien van Ostaaijen
Dr. J.J.C. van Ostaaijen is werkzaam als onderzoeker en docent aan de Tilburgse School voor Politiek en Bestuur (Tilburg University).

    In policy practice sometimes organizational arrangements appear that at first glance manifest itself as cooperative relations between private organizations, but about which on second thoughts the question can be asked if after all there is an active input from the side of the government. This is for instance the case in the construction of biogas infrastructures. In this article the authors discuss if we can talk about PPC after all. In the debate on governance this question is important because in the design of PPC the public interest involved must be sufficiently guaranteed in terms of control and accountability. On the basis of a confrontation between the results of a literature review and an empirical study of the case of a Green Gas pipeline in North-East Friesland (‘Biogasleiding Noordoost Fryslân’) in the Netherlands, the authors conclude that public steering in practice can take a form in disguise. Using ‘intermediate’ civil law legal persons, governmental influence indeed can be and is exercised during the cooperation. Especially law poses specific demands on control and accountability to take care of public interests, like the promotion of the use of renewable energy. Likewise in this kind of projects, especially in comparison with pure private-private cooperation, the public and if possible even the public law regulation must be safeguarded, for instance by transparency of form and content of steering. Of course this has to be done with preservation of the cooperative nature that is typical of PPC.


Maurits Sanders
Dr. M.P.T. Sanders is hoofddocent Bestuurskunde bij Saxion Hogescholen, zakelijk directeur van het Netherlands Institute of Government (NIG) en onlangs gepromoveerd aan de Faculteit Management en Bestuur van de Universiteit Twente.

Michiel Heldeweg
Prof. mr. dr. M.A. Heldeweg is hoogleraar Public Governance Law aan de Faculteit Management en Bestuur van de Universiteit Twente.
Artikel

Waarom burgers coproducent willen zijn

Een theoretisch model om de motivaties van coproducerende burgers te verklaren

Tijdschrift Bestuurskunde, Aflevering 4 2013
Trefwoorden Co-production, citizens, motivation
Auteurs Carola van Eijk en Trui Steen
SamenvattingAuteursinformatie

    In co-production processes, citizens and professionals both contribute to the provision of public services and try to enhance the quality of the services they produce. Although government offers several opportunities for co-production, not all citizens decide to actually take part. Current insights in citizens’ individual motivations offered by the co-production literature are limited. In this article, we integrate insights from different streams of literature to build a theoretical model that explains citizens’ motivations to co-produce. We test the model using empirical data of Dutch neighborhood watches.


Carola van Eijk
C.J.A. van Eijk MSc. (research) werkt als promovenda bij het Instituut Bestuurskunde, Universiteit Leiden.

Trui Steen
Dr. T.P.S. Steen is universitair hoofddocent bij het Instituut Bestuurskunde, Universiteit Leiden en bij KU Leuven Instituut voor de Overheid.
Artikel

Borging van het publiek belang in samenwerkingsverbanden

De rol van intermediairs bij de verlaging van de implementatiekosten van overheidsbeleid

Tijdschrift Beleid en Maatschappij, Aflevering 3 2013
Trefwoorden public interest,, transaction costs, public private partnership, government information, intermediation
Auteurs Prof. dr. Frank Den Butter en Sjoerd Ten Wolde MSc S.A.
SamenvattingAuteursinformatie

    A public interest implies that government intervention is needed in order to enhance societal welfare. After the character of the public interest has been determined from the theoretical perspective of public economics, the government has the responsibility to safeguard the public interest at lowest societal costs. This article discusses the supportive role of intermediaries (or ‘middlemen’), using prescriptions from transaction management. A discussion of three case studies shows how in public private partnerships the knowledge of such intermediaries can be used in order to safeguard the public interest in an efficient manner.


Prof. dr. Frank Den Butter
Frank den Butter is hoogleraar Algemene Economie aan de Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, f.a.g.den.butter@vu.nl.

Sjoerd Ten Wolde MSc S.A.
Sjoerd ten Wolde is onderzoeker aan het Research Institute for Trade and Transaction Management, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, sjoerdtenwolde@gmail.com.
Artikel

Governance by numbers: risico’s verbonden aan de internationale benchmarking en ranking van pensioensystemen

Tijdschrift Beleid en Maatschappij, Aflevering 2 2013
Trefwoorden Governance by numbers, Commensuratie, comparatief onderzoek, doelmatigheid van pensioenen, standaardisatie
Auteurs Drs. Hans Peeters en Dr. Gert Verschraegen
SamenvattingAuteursinformatie

    This article points out some of the pitfalls and ambiguities involved in quantified cross-national policy comparisons by looking at the construction and use of standardized indicators in the field of pension policy. The empirical analysis looks at three cases where the OESO and EU use standardized pension indicators to score and rank the performance of national pension systems. The cases illustrate some of the problems associated with scoring and ranking the outcomes of unique and complex pension systems by means of internationally standardized indicators. Our results show that internationally standardised indicators for pension systems are not neutral in the sense that they favor countries with certain institutional pension policy mixes over others. When particular institutional characteristics are treated differently under the same metric, systematically distorted conclusions about the performance of national pension systems may, and likely do, result. Consequently, these observed biases hinder reliable cross-national comparison that is based on these indicators. The article concludes with some recommendations on the construction and use of international indicators in the field of pension policy. It also discusses where research on the process of commensuration – transforming qualities into quantities − in a comparative context should go from here.


Drs. Hans Peeters
Hans Peeters is wetenschappelijk medewerker aan het Centrum voor Sociologisch Onderzoek van de KU Leuven, België, hans.peeters@soc.kuleuven.be.

Dr. Gert Verschraegen
Gert Verschraegen is docent sociologie aan de Universiteit Antwerpen, België, Gert.Verschraegen@ua.ac.be.
Artikel

Legitimiteit van sociaal beleid: maatschappelijke ontwikkelingen en bestuurlijke dilemma’s

Tijdschrift Beleid en Maatschappij, Aflevering 1 2013
Trefwoorden responsiveness, legitimacy, social policy, policy systems, institutional change
Auteurs Dr. Martijn van der Steen, Dr. Menno Fenger, Lieske van der Torre MA MSc e.a.
SamenvattingAuteursinformatie

    Social policy has to be legitimate. But what is legitimacy? And what makes policy legitimate? This article argues that in order to be legitimate policy needs to answer to three different logics: the logic of the policy system, of external conditions, and of societal preferences. However, these three logics are often not coherent and point in different directions. Also, signs are often not coherent and are ambiguous at best. Therefore, following the three logics is not merely a matter of reading the signs, but of interpreting and balancing them. This article shows how policy makers in the Netherlands are balancing for responsiveness in three cases of social policy: social assistance policy, sheltered work policy and labor migration policy. The cases learn that responsiveness does not come from large decisive reforms, but from a wide range of small and often hardly politicized steps. Also, we see that in balancing the various logics, policy makers have a strong bias towards the logic of the policy system and that of public preference, and pay far less attention to external conditions. However, on the longer term external conditions cannot be neglected and policy makers face tough decisions about short term responsiveness towards public preferences and more longer term actions that make for policies that are more balanced with external conditions and therefore sustainable on the longer term.


Dr. Martijn van der Steen
Dr. Martijn van der Steen is codecaan en adjunct-directeur van de Nederlandse School voor Openbaar Bestuur (NSOB) en directeur van de NSOB Denktank, steen@nsob.nl.

Dr. Menno Fenger
Dr. Menno Fenger is universitair hoofddocent bestuurskunde aan de Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam, Fenger@fsw.eur.nl.

Lieske van der Torre MA MSc
Lieske van der Torre MA MSc is wetenschappelijk docent bestuurskunde aan de Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam en bereidt een proefschrift voor over strategieën van sociale werkvoorzieningsbedrijven, Vandertorre@fsw.eur.nl.

Arno van Wijk BA
Arno van Wijk BA is junior onderzoeker bij de NSOB, vanwijk@nsob.nl.
Artikel

It doesn’t always go according to plan

Een reactie op het Rob-rapport In gesprek of verkeerd verbonden?

Tijdschrift Beleid en Maatschappij, Aflevering 3 2012
Auteurs Dr. Kristof Jacobs
SamenvattingAuteursinformatie

    In this feature authors discuss recent research findings that are of interest to readers of Beleid en Maatschappij.


Dr. Kristof Jacobs
Dr. K.T.E Jacobs is verbonden aan het Institute for Management Research van de Radboud University Nijmegen. K.jacobs@fm.ru.nl.
Artikel

Gevangen in een te smal doel

Tijdschrift Beleid en Maatschappij, Aflevering 3 2012
Auteurs Prof. dr. Anton Hemerijck en Dr. Frank Vandenbroucke
SamenvattingAuteursinformatie

    In this feature authors discuss recent research findings that are of interest to readers of Beleid en Maatschappij.


Prof. dr. Anton Hemerijck
Prof. dr. Anton Hemerijck is decaan van de faculteit Sociale Wetenschappen aan de Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam. A.c.hemerijck@vu.nl

Dr. Frank Vandenbroucke
Dr. Frank Vandenbroucke is hoogleraar aan de KU Leuven en de Universiteit Antwerpen en bekleedt de Den Uyl-leerstoel aan de UvA. Frank.Vandenbroucke@ua.ac.be.

    In this feature authors discuss recent research findings that are of interest to readers of Beleid en Maatschappij.


Dr. Barbara Vis
Dr. Barbara Vis is verbonden aan de afdeling Politicologie van de Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam. B.vis@vu.nl.
Artikel

De wet werken naar vermogen: De stedelijke uitdaging voor creatieve destructie

Tijdschrift Bestuurskunde, Aflevering 1 2012
Trefwoorden job provision, disabled workers, welfare state, creative destruction, local government
Auteurs Marco Wilke
SamenvattingAuteursinformatie

    The Dutch government is preparing a major new law on social security. Among other things, this law fundamentally addresses the current system of job provision for disabled workers. The article describes the proposed system change from the Schumpeterian perspective of creative destruction. The national government effectively tears up the current system but fails to offer a workable and effective alternative. The creative part of the process is left to the municipalities. The municipalities have to develop strategies for integrating disabled workers in the labour market, acknowledging the fact that demand for these workers is very low. The author presents two of those strategies that might effectively integrate disabled workers in the economy and society.


Marco Wilke
Dr M. Wilke is algemeen directeur van Drechtwerk, de sociale werkvoorziening in het Drechtstedengebied. Daarnaast is hij associé van BMC.
Artikel

Lokaal bestuur en de itbreiding van Europa

De bestuurlijke aanpak van de arbeidsmigratie uit Midden- en Oost-Europa

Tijdschrift Bestuurskunde, Aflevering 1 2012
Trefwoorden EU Enlargement, Europeanization, Local Governance, Labour Migration, Migrant Integration Policies
Auteurs Godfried Engbersen en Erik Snel
SamenvattingAuteursinformatie

    This article presents an empirically grounded typology of labour migration patterns among migrants from Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and analyses the ways in which large cities and small towns cope with the diverse inflows of new EU citizens in their municipalities. Our analysis is based on a survey (N=654) among labour migrants from Poland, Bulgaria and Romania in 11 municipalities in the Netherlands, including Rotterdam and The Hague. Next, we make use of the results of six discussion meetings with local stakeholders and housing and labour recruitment agencies. The inflow of new EU citizens shows the local limits of urban governance. In order to cope with the negative aspects of the new labour migration Dutch cities try to influence national and European policy agenda's and develop local programs that counteract the shadow sides of the new labour migration.


Godfried Engbersen
Prof. dr G.B.M. Engbersen en dr E. Snel zijn respectievelijk hoogleraar en universiteit docent aan de afdeling Sociologie van de Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam.

Erik Snel
Prof. dr G.B.M. Engbersen en dr E. Snel zijn respectievelijk hoogleraar en universiteit docent aan de afdeling Sociologie van de Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam.
Artikel

Weinig vreemde handen aan de Nederlandse bedden

Arbeidsmigranten in de ouderenzorg in vergelijkend perspectief

Tijdschrift Beleid en Maatschappij, Aflevering 1 2012
Trefwoorden migrant care work, The Netherlands, elderly care, labour migration, care policy
Auteurs Dr. Franca van Hooren
SamenvattingAuteursinformatie

    In many European countries immigrants play an important role as employees in the elderly care sector. They are employed by a care providing organisation, or directly by a family as private care assistant. By contrast, in the Netherlands such a development is hardly visible. This article investigates why relatively few migrant workers are employed in Dutch elderly care. The Dutch situation is compared with developments in Italy, Great Britain and Austria. I assess explanations based on demand side, supply side and cultural factors and conclude that especially the large public investments in Dutch elderly care can explain the limited demand for migrant workers. A restrictive immigration policy and language and historical factors play only a minor role. Whether a larger demand for migrant workers will emerge in the future, therefore depends on developments in public elderly care policy.


Dr. Franca van Hooren
Franca van Hooren is postdoctoraal onderzoeker aan de universiteit van Bremen. Zij doet onderzoek naar de gevolgen van de economische crisis voor de verzorgingsstaat, franca.vanhooren@sfb597.uni-bremen.de.
Artikel

Overheid 2.0: Aanspreekbaar en aansprekend

Tijdschrift Bestuurskunde, Aflevering 3 2011
Trefwoorden public participation, public private partnership, policy entrepreneurs, enabling leadership, digital revolution, new public management
Auteurs Davied van Berlo en Sibout Nooteboom
SamenvattingAuteursinformatie

    The digital revolution enables civil servants to create innovation with others, across organizational boundaries and with larger groups. Traditional bureaucracies are challenged to put additional conditions and incentives in place to make this possible. The program ‘civil servant 2.0’, aimed at enabling and awareness raising among civil servants, itself also makes use of modern possibilities. One example is Pleio, a digital meeting place for civil servants and other officials and persons who want to share knowledge in a thematic, transboundary way. A dilemma civil servants face is that the hierarchy and the political leadership have to be open to opportunities and input generated from outside. The level of hierarchical support can be discovered when the opportunity emerges. This takes entrepreneurial civil servants: taking initiative with the aim of discovering emerging opportunities in the outside world before it is known how these will be evaluated by the hierarchy. Other enabling conditions are that this activity needs to be possible without taking-up too much of their time, a culture of transparency, the possibility to link with the world through modern ICT (despite possible risks), a safe hierarchical environment, and novel ways of accounting for their output.


Davied van Berlo
Drs D. van Berlo is initiatiefnemer van het netwerk Ambtenaar 2.0 en het platform Pleio (Plein Overheid).

Sibout Nooteboom
Dr S.G. Nooteboom werkt bij het ministerie van Binnenlandse Zaken en Koninkrijksrelaties en aan de Eramus Universiteit. Deze bijdrage is geschreven op persoonlijke titel.

    Dutch housing policy has been reformed dramatically over the last fifteen years. The reforms were preceded by an equally dramatic policy crisis during the 1970s and 1980s. This article attempts to explain the development of both the crisis and the subsequent reforms. An important explanatory variable is the logic of provision, relating to the fact that housing comes in the shape of stock and capital. However, the institutional logic of Dutch housing policy, notably the fact that most social housing providers are traditionally private nonprofits, has also proved of vital significance in determining the outcome of the reform process. Distinguishing the effects of the logic of provision and the institutional logic enables an analysis of how policy feedback, the inheritance from previous policies, may cause both policy crisis and policy reform.


Jan-Kees Helderman
Jan-Kees Helderman is als universitair docent bestuurs- en beleidswetenschappen verbonden aan het Instituut Beleid en Management Gezondheidszorg, Erasmus Medisch Centrum, Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam. Hij werkt op dit moment aan de afronding van zijn dissertatie Bringing the market back in? A comparative analysis of the politics and policies of market-oriented reforms in Dutch housing and health care. Adres Jan-Kees Helderman: Instituut Beleid en Management Gezondheidszorg, Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam, Postbus 1738, 3000 DR Rotterdam, tel.: 010-4088544, e-mail: helderman@bmg.eur.nl

Taco Brandsen
Taco Brandsen is universitair docent bij de Tilburgse School voor Politiek en Bestuur, Faculteit Rechten, Universiteit van Tilburg. Hij promoveerde in 2001 aan de Universiteit Twente op een proefschrift over de Nederlandse volkshuisvesting als 'quasie markt' en is de auteur van het in 2004 verschenen boek Quasi-Market Governance: An anatomy of Innovation, uitgegeven bij Lemma bv, Utrecht. Adres: Taco Brandsen, Tilburgse School voor Politiek en Bestuur, Faculteit Rechten, Universiteit van Tilburg, Postbus 90153, 5000 LE Tilburg, tel.: 013-4662156, e-mail: t.brandsen@uvt.nl

    This article examines government communication on two large-scale Belgian governmental reforms: the Federal Administration and the police forces. Using Lees-Marshment's typology of marketing processes, we identify the marketing of the changes by the Federal Administration as sales-oriented: a finished product or an expert-developed administrative reform project to be sold to the public. Declining enthusiasm for communication and growing product disagreement gradually forced this reform to disappear from the market. The police reform followed a market-oriented marketing process. It responded to public outrage. The Government merely reacted to external information. This explains why it failed to deal with a changed market situation. A content analysis of articles in both popular and quality newspapers examines the representation of both reforms in the media and seems to confirm our observations. This article shows that marketing reforms are extremely difficult when there is no shared understanding of the product to be marketed.


Dave Gelders
Dave Gelders is als aspirant van het Fonds voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek-Vlaanderen verbonden aan het Departement Communicatieweten-schap van de Katholieke Universiteit Leuven. Hij doet onderzoek naar externe overheidscommunicatie over beleid. Enkele recente publicaties: Gelders, D., 'Public information provision about policy intentions: The Dutch and Belgian experience'. Government Information Quarterly (2003 forthcoming). Gelders, D. en L. Gelders, 'Grenzen aan de externe communicatie van een VOI: De Vlaamse Maatschappij voor Watervoorziening'. Vlaams Tijdschrift voor Overheidsmanagement (2003) 8: 4-10. Gelders, D., 'Drugbeleid in België: Communicatieonderzoek over niet-aanvaard beleid'. Paper Voorjaarscongres Vereniging voor Overheidscommunicatie (Universiteit Twente, Enschede 2003). Adres Dave Gelders: Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Departement Communicatiewetenschap, Van Evenstraat 2A, B 3000 Leuven, tel: (32) 1 632 36 14, e-mail: steven.vandewalle@soc.kuleuven.ac.be

Steven Van de Walle
Steven Van de Walle is wetenschappelijk medewerker aan het Instituut voor de Overheid van de Katholieke Universiteit Leuven. Hij doet onderzoek naar de relatie tussen de kwaliteit van overheidsdienstverlening en het vertrouwen van de burger in de overheid. Enkele recente publicaties: Bouckaert, G. en S. Van de Walle, 'Comparing measures of citizen trust and user satisfaction as indicators of "good governance": Difficulties in linking trust and satisfaction indicators'. International Review of Administrative Sciences (2003) 69 (3): 329-344. Van de Walle, S. en G. Bouckaert. 'Public service performance and trust in government: The problem of causality'. International Journal of Public Administration (2003) 26 (8-9): 891-913. Van de Walle, S., 'Context-specific images of the archetypical bureaucrat: Persistence and diffusion of the bureaucracy stereotype'. Public Voices (2003 forthcoming). Bouckaert, G. en S. Van de Walle, 2003, 'Quality of public service delivery and trust in government'. In: A. Salminen (red), Governing Networks: EGPA Yearbook (Amsterdam 2003: IOS Press) 299-318. Van de Walle, S. en J.K. Kampen, 'Zijn ontevreden klanten ontevreden: Over zin en onzin van gebruikersbevragingen bij de overheid'. b en m (2003) 29: 146-155. Adres Steven Van der Walle: Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Instituut voor de Overheid, Van Evenstraat 2A, B 3000 Leuven, tel.: (32) 1 632 30 53, e-mail: dave.gelders@soc.kuleuven.ac.be
Artikel

De investeringsstaat en het verdelingsvraagstuk: waarom is de armoede niet gedaald?

Tijdschrift Beleid en Maatschappij, Aflevering 2 2011
Trefwoorden welfare state, poverty, inequality, new social risks, labour market, income protection
Auteurs Bea Cantillon en Wim Van Lancker
SamenvattingAuteursinformatie

    In the past decades, employment and incomes were on the rise, social spending remained high while passive welfare states were progressively transformed into so-called ‘investment states’. Despite these favourable conditions, however, contemporary welfare states did not succeed in reducing poverty and inequality. What lies beneath the disquieting poverty standstill and how did welfare states miss this ‘window of opportunity’? In this article, we aim to shed more light on this question. We identify three structural trends behind the poverty standstill: rising employment has benefited workless households only partially; income protection for the working-age population out of work has become less adequate; social policies and, more generally, social redistribution have become less pro-poor. In other words, the reorientation of social expenditures to the employed occurred at the expense of those at risk in the labour market. The success of future poverty-reducing strategies will depend on the way policies aimed at labour market inclusion will be implemented and the emphasis on redistributive policies.


Bea Cantillon
Bea Cantillon is directeur van het Centrum voor Sociaal Beleid Herman Deleeck van de faculteit Politieke en Sociale Wetenschappen, Universiteit Antwerpen. Correspondentiegegevens: prof. dr. B. Cantillon, Centrum voor Sociaal Beleid Herman Deleeck, Faculteit Politieke en Sociale Wetenschappen, Universiteit Antwerpen, Sint-Jacobstraat 2 - B-2000 Antwerpen, bea.cantillon@ua.ac.be.

Wim Van Lancker
Wim Van Lancker is onderzoeker aan het Centrum voor Sociaal Beleid Herman Deleeck van de faculteit Politieke en Sociale Wetenschappen, Universiteit Antwerpen. Correspondentiegegevens: Wim Van Lancker, Centrum voor Sociaal Beleid Herman Deleeck, Faculteit Politieke en Sociale Wetenschappen, Universiteit Antwerpen, Sint-Jacobstraat 2 - B-2000 Antwerpen, wim.vanlancker@ua.ac.be.
Artikel

De paradox van de krimp

Politiekbestuurlijke aspecten rond bevolkingsdaling

Tijdschrift Bestuurskunde, Aflevering 1 2011
Auteurs Leo van Klinkers en Peter Hovens
Auteursinformatie

Leo van Klinkers
Mr dr L. Klinkers en drs P. Hovens zijn werkzaam bij het Kenniscentrum voor Bevolkingsdaling en Beleid (www.bevolkingsdaling.nl).

Peter Hovens
Mr dr L. Klinkers en drs P. Hovens zijn werkzaam bij het Kenniscentrum voor Bevolkingsdaling en Beleid (www.bevolkingsdaling.nl).

    In public debate on immigrants' political ties with their country of origin, two assumptions prevail. The first assumption is that many immigrants engage in transnational political activities. The second is that forms of transnational citizenship are an impediment for the development of local citizenship. However, so far little research has been done on the importance of, and the relationship between, local and transnational citizenship. In this article, we focus on local and transnational forms of active citizenship, here understood as the total of political practices and processes of identification. Our study, conducted among middle-class immigrants in Rotterdam, indicates that the importance of active transnational citizenship should not be overstated. Among these middle-class immigrants, political practices are primarily focused on the local level; political practices directed to the home country appear to be quite rare. If we look at processes of identification, we see that a majority of the middle-class immigrants have a strong urban identity. Many of them combine this local identification with feelings of belonging with people in their home country. These local and transnational identifications seem to reinforce, rather than impede, each other.


Marianne van Bochove
Marianne van Bochove is als promovendus verbonden aan de Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam. Correspondentiegegevens: M.E. van Bochove, MSc Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam Faculteit der Sociale Wetenschappen Capaciteitsgroep Sociologie Postbus 1738 3000 DR Rotterdam vanbochove@fsw.eur.nl

Katja Rusinovic
Katja Rusinovic werkt aan de Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam als postdoc onderzoeker.

Godfried Engbersen
Godfried Engbersen is als als hoogleraar algemene sociologie verbonden aan de Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam.

    The contraction of the labour force evokes both promising and gloomy prospects. Promising, because unemployment is expected to be a thing of the past, gloomy, because a shortage of labour could endanger our future prosperity. This article shows that both prospects are wrongfully based on a static perspective of the labour market, which neglects the underlying dynamics. Since the demand and the supply of labour adjust to one another, the future labour market will not be completely different from the present one. Moreover, the ageing of the labour force has nearly reached its apogee and the age composition of the labour force will not change much in the next 25 years. Thus, the problems of a contracting labour market will be remarkably similar to the problems of the expanding labour market of the past decades.


Paul de Beer
Paul de Beer is Henri Polak-hoogleraar voor arbeidsverhoudingen aan de Universiteit van Amsterdam. Tevens is hij verbonden aan De Burcht (Centrum voor Arbeidsverhoudingen) en het Amsterdams Instituut voor ArbeidsStudies (AIAS). Correspondentiegegevens: Prof. dr. P.T. de Beer Universiteit van Amsterdam Amsterdams Instituut voor ArbeidsStudies (AIAS) Plantage Muidergracht 12 1018 TV Amsterdam p.t.debeer@uva.nl

    Public expensens on elderly care are paid through the exceptional Medical Expenses Act (Algemene Wet Bijzondere Ziektekosten, AWBZ in Dutch) or the Social Support Act (Wet Maatschappelijke ondersteuning, WMO in Dutch). These expenses have risen 2.8% yearly in the past decennium. This is mainly due to rising cost prices. In the same period the growth in the volume of care was much lower. Especially the volume of home care increased, while the volume of nursing-home care decreased. This is caused by the improving health of the Dutch population. Moreover Dutch elderly can live independently longer, which means that the participation component in the volume nursing-home care decreases. This trend in decreasing participation will continue the coming years, but due to the fast ageing of the Dutch population the care volume will increase somewhat faster than in the past. According to our calculations this leads to an increase of expenses of 3.6% yearly. The population decline will put severe pressure on the number of employees. This will possibly induce a reduction in the available supply of care and an increase in wages in the care sector. As a result the consequences of the population shrinkage on public expenses are unknown.


Evelien Eggink
Evelien Eggink is werkzaam als senior onderzoeker bij het Sociaal en Cultureel Planbureau (SCP). Correspondentiegegevens: Dr. E. Eggink Sociaal en Cultureel Planbureau (SCP) Onderzoeksgroep Quartaire Sector Postbus 16164 2500 BD Den Haag e.eggink@scp.nl

Evert Pommer
Evert Pommer is werkzaam als hoofd onderzoeksgroep bij het Sociaal en Cultureel Planbureau (SCP).

Isolde Woittiez
Isolde Woittiez is werkzaam als senior onderzoeker bij het Sociaal en Cultureel Planbureau (SCP).
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